As markets prepare for a wave of large AI IPOs in 2026 and 2027, we assessed which venture capital firms are best positioned to capture value from AI exits. Major firms have pursued distinct strategies. Thrive Capital has concentrated on foundational infrastructure potential, Lightspeed and Andreessen Horowitz have pushed across both infrastructure and the application layer, while Sequoia Capital has prioritized leaders in the AI application layer.

One pattern clearly separates the top performers: conviction.

Thrive Capital's Early Conviction in OpenAI

Thrive invested aggressively across major OpenAI rounds at a time when many large VCs were skeptical of OpenAI's valuation, nonprofit structure, and capital intensity. That early and sustained conviction has proven decisive. By leading multiple early rounds in what has since become an $830B company, Thrive converted a focused, high-risk bet into one of the most successful AI investments on record.

Anthropic: Pre-Product Conviction

A similar dynamic played out at Anthropic. Both Spark Capital and Menlo Ventures secured meaningful ownership before Anthropic had a leading product in the market, reflecting strong pre-product conviction rather than reactive positioning. This early conviction, combined with meaningful ownership stakes, has positioned these firms exceptionally well as Anthropic has grown into a leading foundation model provider.

Value Concentration in Foundation Models

We also see a pronounced concentration of value accruing to leading foundation model providers, disproportionately amplifying both absolute and relative returns for VCs that led their early rounds. This value concentration means that firms with early, concentrated positions in foundational AI companies have generated outsized returns relative to their capital deployed.

Ranking Methodology

In this ranking we prioritize:

• Involvement in high-value AI startups (ARR and valuation metrics)
• Value created per dollar invested
• Early conviction before success was obvious
• Ownership quality in category-defining companies

Top Performers

Thrive Capital and Lightspeed lead the rankings, demonstrating exceptional value creation per dollar invested through early conviction and strategic positioning in foundational AI companies. Menlo Ventures and Spark Capital are punching above their weight, securing meaningful ownership in high-value AI companies through pre-product conviction and strategic early investments.

The Signal for the AI Era

For LPs, founders, and policy makers, this ranking signals a fundamental shift: in the AI era, the most important venture investors are those who combine deep technical understanding with concentrated, early conviction—and who are willing to hold those positions as the underlying models reshape global markets.

Earthian AI provides risk inference infrastructure to global financial institutions, and our proprietary capital markets risk data are accessible to partners, including large LPs in both the U.S. and Europe. This public ranking is intended to offer additional insight into private capital markets, complementing academic and industry works, including that of Ilya Strebulaev at Stanford University and Peter Walker at Carta.