35 Inches (890 mm) of Rain Forecast in Tropical Storm Melissa; Already 4 Dead, 650+ Shelters Open Across Jamaica

A near-stationary cyclone over steep terrain is flood math you don’t want: long rain-on-mountain = landslides, river surges and road washouts. Forecasters warn southern Haiti’s Tiburon Peninsula could see up to 35 inches (890 mm), with multi-day bands over Jamaica and eastern Cuba—putting water, power, ports and hospitals at risk. At least 4 deaths have been reported (3 in Haiti, 1 in the D.R.).

As of Saturday, Melissa’s sustained winds were about 70 mph (113 km/h) southeast of Kingston, with rapid intensification expected—hurricane soon, major hurricane by Sunday. Jamaica has activated 650+ shelters and pre-positioned supplies, while the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos prepare for possible hurricane conditions early next week. Reported impacts already include damaged homes, water-system outages, and isolated communities in the D.R. Melissa is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season.

Slow movers are disproportionately destructive: even if peak winds stay offshore, the duration of tropical-storm or hurricane conditions elevates the risk profile for landslides and flash floods. With Haiti’s topography and fragile infrastructure, road clearance, bridge inspections and water-borne disease prevention become the immediate post-storm priorities. Jamaica’s shelter count—650–800+ depending on district mobilization—signals authorities expect days, not hours, of disruption.

This is a hydrology story as much as a wind story. The headline number—35 inches—translates into overwhelmed drainage, impassable roads, and supply-chain lag across multiple islands. Expect rolling airport and port constraints, short-term spikes in demand for fuel, food and medical logistics, and a second-order bill for debris removal and slope stabilization. If Melissa attains major-hurricane strength on the clocks forecasters suggest, the region’s resilience will hinge on how fast shelters, water systems and arterial roads can be kept open—and then dug out.